In the world of football, the UEFA Champions League is where dreams are made and champions are crowned. It’s a competition that never fails to deliver drama, excitement, and unforgettable moments. As we approach the halfway mark of the group stage, some teams find themselves in less-than-ideal positions. But history has shown that a slow start doesn’t necessarily mean the end of their last-16 ambitions.
Let’s take a trip down memory lane and explore what the past seasons of the UEFA Champions League tell us about teams’ hopes of advancing to the knockout stages.
Points After Matchday 3: A Snapshot of Hope
The journey to the last 16 is a challenging one, and some teams have had to claw their way back from the brink. After Matchday 3, the points distribution often reveals interesting insights:
- 0 Points: Only 2% of teams with 0 points at this stage have made it through.
- 1 Point: A more promising 9% of teams with 1 point after three matches have advanced.
- 2 Points: Around 16% of teams with 2 points have successfully secured a spot in the last 16.
- 3 Points: Teams with 3 points have a solid track record, with 22% of them progressing.
- 4 Points: A strong 48% of teams with 4 points have gone on to the knockout stages.
- 5 Points: It gets even better for teams with 5 points, with 71% making it to the last 16.
- 6 Points: The majority, 83%, of teams with a perfect 6 points have advanced.
- 7 Points: Almost a guarantee, 94% of teams with 7 points secured a spot in the last 16.
- 9 Points: Unsurprisingly, teams with 9 points after Matchday 3 all advanced to the knockout rounds.
A Glimmer of Hope: Atalanta’s Remarkable Turnaround
Atalanta’s journey serves as a beacon of hope for teams struggling to secure a win at the halfway stage. Before this season, 54 teams found themselves in this challenging position. Remarkably, only Atalanta managed to claw their way out of it. The Italian side’s determination led them to the quarter-finals in the 2019/20 season, defying the odds and making a historic comeback.
Teams Who Turned It Around: Against All Odds
While Atalanta’s feat is exceptional, a few other teams have managed to overcome a slow start and make their way to the last 16:
- 0 Points: Atalanta (2019/20)
- 1 Point: Tottenham (2018/19), Gent (2015/16), Galatasaray (2012/13), Panathinaikos (2008/09), Liverpool (2007/08), Bremen (2005/06), Porto (2004/05), Arsenal (2003/04)
- 2 Points: LOSC Lille (2021/22), Roma (2015/16), Man City (2014/15), Stuttgart (2009/10), Celta Vigo (2003/04)
- 3 Points: Leverkusen (2016/17)
A Cautionary Tale: The Peril of Complacency
While a strong start is often a good omen, it’s not a guarantee. Four teams have found themselves with seven points after Matchday 3 since 2003/04 and failed to reach the knockout rounds. Porto (2015/16), Rangers (2007/08), Marseille (2007/08), and CSKA Moskva (2006/07) all had promising beginnings but ultimately fell short.
So, as we reach the halfway mark of the UEFA Champions League group stage, remember that it’s not over till it’s over. The beautiful game has a way of surprising us, and last-16 ambitions can still be within reach, even after a slow start. The journey continues, and the drama unfolds with every matchday.
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